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Threat Map

The major threats to counting and certifying the vote that we are watching. For each one we list what would tell us it is developing and what would tell us it is happening, with the sources behind each. Tracked through January 6, 2027.

15 threats watched: 6 active, 7 developing, 2 watching. 71 incidents observed in 34 states.

Where incidents are concentrated

Each state shows the incidents observed for this threat. A taller column is more incidents.

  • Force and coercion 0 threats, 0 incidents
  • Control of the process 1 threat, 2 incidents
  • Results and legitimacy 0 threats, 0 incidents
  • Violence and threats 0 threats, 0 incidents
  • Fraud and deception 0 threats, 0 incidents

Fraud and deception is shown at zero on purpose. Nothing is filed there yet, so an empty row is a gap in our list, not an all-clear.

States

AK
ME
WI
VT
NH
WA
ID
MT
ND
MN
IL
MI
NY
MA
OR
NV
WY
SD
IA
IN
OH
PA
NJ
CT
RI
CA
UT
CO
NE
MO
KY
WV
VA
MD
DE
AZ
NM
KS
AR
TN
SC
DC
OK
LA
MS
AL
GA
HI
TX
FL

Regions

  • Northeast
  • Midwest
  • South
  • West
Show the numbers
Where incidents are concentrated
StatesForce and coercionControl of the processResults and legitimacyViolence and threatsFraud and deceptionTotal
North Carolina020002
Northeast000000
Midwest000000
South020002
West000000

These are the incidents we have observed and sourced, not a count of everything that has happened.

Developing Control of the process

Mail ballots spoiled by late rule changes

Mail voting rules are changed or enforced in ways that spoil ballots after they have gone out or been cast. Courts often decline to step in once voting has started, so a late change tends to stand for the whole election. Watch for new mail ballot memos, sealing and signature rules, and rejection rates well above the last cycle.

What has happened

  • A federal judge denied an injunction against North Carolina's sealing and signature rules, citing the Purcell principle and the plaintiffs' delay. The ruling is preliminary, not a final decision on the merits.

Where it has been observed

No state is marked for this threat yet.

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How to read this map