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Threat Map

The major threats to counting and certifying the vote that we are watching. For each one we list what would tell us it is developing and what would tell us it is happening, with the sources behind each. Tracked through January 6, 2027.

15 threats watched: 6 active, 7 developing, 2 watching. 73 incidents observed in 35 states.

When incidents were observed

Incidents observed each week for this threat. Only incidents with a date are shown.

  • Force and coercion 0 threats, 0 incidents
  • Control of the process 1 threat, 2 incidents
  • Results and legitimacy 0 threats, 0 incidents
  • Violence and threats 0 threats, 0 incidents
  • Fraud and deception 0 threats, 0 incidents

Fraud and deception is shown at zero on purpose. Nothing is filed there yet, so an empty row is a gap in our list, not an all-clear.

01IncidentsAug 31Sep 14Sep 28Oct 12Oct 26Election DayToday
Show the numbers
When incidents were observed
Week beginningForce and coercionControl of the processResults and legitimacyViolence and threatsFraud and deceptionTotal
Aug 31, 2026010001
Sep 7, 2026000000
Sep 14, 2026000000
Sep 21, 2026000000
Sep 28, 2026000000
Oct 5, 2026000000
Oct 12, 2026000000
Oct 19, 2026010001
Oct 26, 2026000000
Nov 2, 2026000000

These are the incidents we have observed and sourced, not a count of everything that has happened.

Developing Control of the process

Mail ballots spoiled by late rule changes

Mail voting rules are changed or enforced in ways that spoil ballots after they have gone out or been cast. Courts often decline to step in once voting has started, so a late change tends to stand for the whole election. Watch for new mail ballot memos, sealing and signature rules, and rejection rates well above the last cycle.

What has happened

  • A federal judge denied an injunction against North Carolina's sealing and signature rules, citing the Purcell principle and the plaintiffs' delay. The ruling is preliminary, not a final decision on the merits.

Where it has been observed

No state is marked for this threat yet.

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How to read this map