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Threat Map

The major threats to counting and certifying the vote that we are watching. For each one we list what would tell us it is developing and what would tell us it is happening, with the sources behind each. Tracked through January 6, 2027.

15 threats watched: 6 active, 7 developing, 2 watching. 71 incidents observed in 34 states.

Where this threat is: Mail ballots spoiled by late rule changes

Choose a state to see what has been observed there. A state is marked only where an observed warning or indicator, with a source, places a threat in it.

Developing Control of the process

Mail ballots spoiled by late rule changes

Mail voting rules are changed or enforced in ways that spoil ballots after they have gone out or been cast. Courts often decline to step in once voting has started, so a late change tends to stand for the whole election. Watch for new mail ballot memos, sealing and signature rules, and rejection rates well above the last cycle.

What has happened

  • A federal judge denied an injunction against North Carolina's sealing and signature rules, citing the Purcell principle and the plaintiffs' delay. The ruling is preliminary, not a final decision on the merits.

Where it has been observed

  • North Carolina Active since Sep 4, 2026
    • Mail ballots are rejected at a rate well above the last midterm because of the rule change. North Carolina, 27 of 100 counties: about 3%, double 2022; Mecklenburg and Forsyth 7 to 8% · Oct 20, 2026
    • A state board changes how mail ballots are counted hours before ballots go out. North Carolina State Board of Elections, Sept. 4 memo, passed 3-2 on party lines · Sep 4, 2026

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